Microsoft Undervalued by 16.3% with DCF Implied Value of $479.28
Microsoft's intrinsic value from an earnings-based DCF is $479.28 versus its trading price of $401.32, implying a 16.27% margin of safety. The DCF assumes $15.34 EPS, an 11% discount rate, 20.5% EPS growth for 10 years and 4% thereafter; a free cash flow DCF yields $219.68 with an –82.68% margin.
1. Earnings-Based Intrinsic Value
Microsoft’s earnings-based DCF yields an intrinsic value of $479.28 per share compared with a market price of $401.32, indicating a 16.27% margin of safety and suggesting modest undervaluation.
2. DCF Assumptions
The model employs EPS without NRI of $15.34, a discount rate of 11% derived from a 5% 10-year Treasury rate plus 6% risk premium, a 20.5% EPS growth rate over a 10-year growth stage and a 4% terminal growth rate.
3. Valuation Calculation
The growth stage value (247.69) and terminal stage value (247.95) sum to the $479.28 intrinsic valuation, reflecting discounted EPS projections over the two stages.
4. Free Cash Flow DCF Outcome
A traditional free cash flow DCF produces an intrinsic value of $219.68 per share, resulting in an –82.68% margin of safety and indicating potential overvaluation under that model.