Microsoft’s Cloud Backlog Hits $625B With 45% Tied to OpenAI, Shares Slide 22%
Microsoft disclosed its commercial cloud remaining performance obligations have surged to $625 billion, with about 45% tied to OpenAI commitments, as investors grow cautious about the AI compute spend. Shares have fallen 22.35% from $516.84 on Oct. 31, 2025 to $401.32 on Feb. 16, 2026.
1. Cloud Backlog Reaches $625 Billion
Microsoft's commercial cloud remaining performance obligations have risen to approximately $625 billion, with roughly 45% of that balance directly tied to OpenAI compute commitments. This represents a significant concentration of future revenue and underscores the scale of its AI infrastructure obligations.
2. Share Price Decline Reflects AI Spend Concerns
Microsoft shares have dropped 22.35% from $516.84 on October 31, 2025 to $401.32 on February 16, 2026, underperforming peers and the broader Nasdaq. The selloff highlights investor apprehension about potential returns on the company's multiyear AI spending plan.
3. Market Doubts Over Compute Investment
Growing scrutiny on the trillion-dollar AI compute build-out has raised questions about margin pressure, capital deployment and earnings visibility. With nearly half of its cloud backlog tied to OpenAI, investors are evaluating whether future growth will justify the upfront costs.