MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Led to $79M Polymarket Settlement Error
MSTR•MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin in late May but its June disclosure led Polymarket to settle a $79 million contract incorrectly on the “no” side. The discrepancy arose because the firm delayed announcing the sale until its regular Monday report, triggering controversy over prediction market accuracy.
1. Sale Timing Discrepancy
MicroStrategy completed the Bitcoin sale in late May but did not report the transaction until its regular Monday update in early June. This gap between execution and disclosure created confusion over the actual sale date.
2. Prediction Market Mechanics
Polymarket offered a binary contract on whether MicroStrategy would sell Bitcoin before May ended, with $79 million wagered on the outcome. Betters chose yes or no, and the platform’s settlement relies on the firm’s public disclosures.
3. Settlement Controversy
Because MicroStrategy’s announcement arrived in June, Polymarket deemed the sale as occurring after May, endorsing the no side of the contract. Critics argue this ruling is incorrect and highlights flaws in relying solely on periodic reports.
4. Implications for Investors
The dispute over $79 million in unsettled bets raises questions about the reliability of decentralized prediction markets. Investors may reassess risk when market outcomes hinge on scheduled corporate disclosures rather than real-time events.
