Middle East LNG industry remains hostage of Iran war: Bousso
UNG•Qatar’s LNG exports remain sharply curtailed amid the Iran war and uncertainty over safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. September exports reached 1.6 million tons, less than a quarter of the pre-war average, and October exports are on track to fall to 0.6 million tons.
1. Exports remain constrained
Qatar’s LNG exports rose to 1.6 million tons in September, their highest level since the conflict began but less than a quarter of the pre-war average. October exports are on track to fall to 0.6 million tons, while QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices for cargoes to customers in Asia and Europe.
2. Difficult restart logistics
Qatar’s LNG system depends on gas production from the North Field, separation and export of condensate, storage, and reliable tanker access through Hormuz. The country has limited LNG storage, and the global LNG tanker fleet is smaller than the oil tanker fleet, making shippers less willing to risk vessels in the Gulf.
3. Expansion faces uncertainty
Qatar is expanding LNG capacity toward 142 million tons per year by 2030, which would represent roughly a quarter of the global market. The article says that capacity may remain stranded until a credible, durable agreement involving Iran, the United States and regional powers ensures safe passage through the strait.
