The Republican Party’s midterm defeat may make it harder for President Donald Trump to end the Iran war, leaving the Middle East and global energy markets facing a more unstable period. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels, while prices remain about 40% higher.
Democrats won control of both the Senate and House, and the result may make it more challenging for Trump to end the conflict. The president could pursue further strikes, seek a deal with Iran or maintain the status quo, but each option carries risks.
Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels, supported by US Navy-assisted tanker convoys. Oil prices remain around 40% above pre-war levels, reflecting risks to transporting oil from the region. The US blockade has also squeezed Iran’s oil exports.
Qatar has mediated indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, but the sides remain far apart. A quick deal might reopen Hormuz without resolving Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while further strikes could deepen an unpopular war; maintaining the blockade may take time to produce results.
