Middle East oil exports top pre-war levels for part of September as tanker attacks increase
USO•Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days in September, with a seven-day average of 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30. At least seven tanker incidents were reported in the past week, while ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have reached their limits.
1. Exports recover
Gulf oil exporters topped pre-war levels for about half of September, shipping data showed. Kpler’s provisional data put the region’s seven-day average crude exports at 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, compared with an average of about 18 million barrels per day in the 12 months before the war. Vortexa said its 14-day average for Middle East crude and condensate exports reached 18.6 million barrels per day.
2. Tankers face attacks
Marisks said at least seven incidents were reported in the past week. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile on October 1, causing a fire, and the Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck on October 4, damaging its engine room. Crews on both vessels were reported safe, with no casualties.
3. Logistics and risks
The export surge has been driven by Saudi Arabia loading crude from both the Red Sea and the Gulf, Kpler said. Trade sources and analysts said the increase has required more supertankers to shuttle crude through Hormuz, while ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have reached their limits. Marisks said Iranian forces may be targeting a predetermined engagement area, or “kill box,” rather than individually selected merchant vessels.
