Middle East to pay for Trump's midterm rout: Bousso
USO•The Democratic sweep in the US midterms may make it harder for President Donald Trump to end the Iran war, leaving the Middle East and global energy markets facing continued uncertainty. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels, but prices remain about 40% above pre-war levels.
1. Midterm fallout
The Iran war was a key driver of Republicans’ defeat in the US midterms, but Trump’s weakened political position may make it more challenging to end the conflict. Democrats won control of both the Senate and House, and Trump may face greater difficulty passing legislation once the new Congress is seated in January.
2. Energy disruption
The conflict has largely shifted toward control of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Crude shipments through the strait have recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels with US Navy-assisted convoys, while oil prices remain about 40% above pre-war levels.
3. Three difficult options
Trump could pursue further strikes, seek a deal with Iran or maintain the status quo. Qatar has mediated indirect talks, but the sides remain far apart over nuclear issues and reopening the strait; further strikes could deepen an unpopular war, while a quick deal or continued blockade may leave the region unstable.
