Middle East war and high debt to dominate IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok
SPY•The widening war in the Middle East, energy supply disruptions and rising debt will dominate the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok. The IMF says public debt is at its highest level since World War Two and will exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030; its 2026 global growth forecast remains 3%.
1. War and energy risks
Finance officials will gather in Bangkok this week as the war with Iran and its economic effects take center stage at the annual IMF and World Bank meetings. World Bank President Ajay Banga said higher diesel and fertilizer prices, energy costs and a looming El Niño effect were compounding economic strains.
2. Oil supplies and growth
The Group of Seven has agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves. More than 1 billion barrels have been released mainly from onshore commercial inventories since the war began on February 28, while industry executives say accessible oil storage is running low. The IMF has signaled little change to its 3% global growth forecast for 2026, though some countries, including Ukraine and Gulf states, are expected to see downgrades.
3. Debt pressures
The IMF says public debt is at its highest level since World War Two and will exceed 100% of GDP before 2030. Developing countries face higher borrowing costs, with interest payments averaging more than 10% of revenue. Diplomats said there was little G20 appetite to revive a debt-service moratorium for poorer countries.
