Mission Produce Sees Q1 Revenue Down 22% After Q4 Revenue Beat
Mission Produce reported $319 million last quarter (down 10% year-on-year), beating analysts’ gross margin and EBITDA forecasts. This quarter revenue is expected to fall 22% year-on-year compared with peers’ flat to 11% sales gains, while shares trade 22% below the $17.33 average analyst target after a 1.5% monthly drop.
1. Q4 Performance and Beat
Mission Produce delivered $319 million in revenue last quarter, a 10% year-on-year decline, while surpassing analysts’ gross margin and EBITDA estimates. This marked its third consecutive quarter of upside surprises, reinforcing its track record of outperformance.
2. Q1 Outlook
The company expects first-quarter revenue to drop 22% year-on-year, a sharp reversal from last year’s 29.2% increase. Analysts have largely maintained their estimates over the past month, suggesting confidence in the guidance heading into the report.
3. Peer Comparison
Within the perishable foods segment, Fresh Del Monte Produce reported flat year-on-year revenue with a 0.7% beat and Flowers Foods posted an 11% sales gain in line with consensus. The sector has underperformed recently, down 4.8% on average while Mission Produce shares fell 1.5%.
4. Valuation and Share Movement
Mission Produce shares trade around $13.45, compared with an average analyst price target of $17.33, implying roughly 22% upside. The current share performance reflects investor caution ahead of potential tariff and tax policy developments.