Mizuho Downgrades Qualcomm as Ray-Ban Glasses Demand Reaches 20–30M Units

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Qualcomm's Meta partnership on Ray-Ban smart glasses drove production targets to 20–30 million units, while its Dragonwing IQ10 launch and Figure collaboration bolster AI robotics positioning. Yet Mizuho downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing Apple modem share losses, weaker handset demand and warning support at $160 before early-February earnings.

1. Qualcomm Ignites Personal AI Momentum

Qualcomm has repositioned itself at the forefront of the personal AI and robotics surge, overturning earlier concerns that it was missing the AI wave. Its collaboration with Meta on the Ray-Ban smart glasses has driven production targets upward to 20–30 million units, reflecting unexpectedly strong consumer demand. Meanwhile, the recently launched Dragonwing IQ10 series of AI accelerators is being adopted by robotics startups, most notably Figure, which is integrating Qualcomm’s compute modules into its humanoid platform. These partnerships underscore Qualcomm’s strategy to leverage its wireless and AI IP beyond smartphones, laying the groundwork for multiple high-growth revenue streams over the next several years.

2. Handset Business Comes Under Pressure

Despite robust growth in new segments, Qualcomm’s core handset modem business is showing signs of strain. Analyst firm Mizuho downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral after forecasting market share erosion on Apple-compatible modems and an overall softening in smartphone demand. The stock dipped nearly 5% on the downgrade, highlighting investor concern that non-handset categories—though growing at double-digit rates in automotive and IoT—may not fully compensate for near-term headwinds in mobile chip sales. With full-year earnings due in early February, investors will be watching for guidance on handset orders, modem ASP trends and margin impacts from Qualcomm’s continued expansion into new AI and connected-device markets.

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