Mobileye Cuts 2026 Revenue Forecast Citing Slower EV Production Impact

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Mobileye Global forecasts full-year 2026 revenue below Wall Street expectations, attributing the shortfall to reduced demand for its driver-assistance systems caused by slower electric vehicle production. The revised outlook signals headwinds for core ADAS business growth.

1. Q4 2025 Financial Performance

Mobileye reported fourth-quarter revenue of $446 million, a 9% decline from $490 million in the year-ago period, driven primarily by an 11% reduction in EyeQ system-on-chip volumes as Tier 1 customers adjusted inventory levels. GAAP operating loss widened to $140 million (-31% operating margin) compared with a $86 million loss (-18% margin) in Q4 2024. On a non-GAAP basis, the company delivered adjusted gross margin of 67% and adjusted operating margin of 9%, translating to adjusted earnings per share of $0.06, down 58% from $0.13 in the prior year quarter.

2. Expanding Automotive Pipeline

By year-end 2025, Mobileye’s eight-year expected automotive revenue pipeline reached $24.5 billion, up 42% since the 2022 update. Growth was fueled by follow-on ADAS design wins with all top-10 global OEMs, the addition of two new ADAS customers and substantial expansion within Volkswagen Group brands. Future volume from the first two Surround ADAS customers is now projected at 19 million units, with further OEM engagements progressing toward conversion in 2026.

3. 2026 Financial Guidance

For fiscal 2026, Mobileye forecasts full-year revenue between $1.90 billion and $1.98 billion, reflecting consolidation of the Mentee Robotics acquisition expected in Q1. Adjusted operating income is projected in the range of $170 million to $220 million, assuming low-single-digit percentage contribution of Mentee-related expenses to total operating costs. The company will provide GAAP operating income outlook upon closing of the acquisition.

4. Strategic Initiatives and Robotics Expansion

Mobileye agreed to acquire Mentee Robotics, extending its Physical AI platform beyond automotive autonomy into humanoid robotics. The transaction, anticipated to close in Q1 2026, leverages scalable AI model development and safety-by-design engineering to address emerging robotics markets. Concurrently, Volkswagen Autonomous Mobility unveiled plans for robotaxi services in six cities by end-2027, targeting a 100,000-vehicle fleet by 2033, underpinned by Mobileye’s roadmap for safety-driver removal and commercialization beginning in 2026.

Sources

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