Moderna $30 bln gain implies many cancer successes

Moderna said in April that phase 2 bladder and renal cell trials were fully enrolled. That probably means news next year. And the kidney cancer trial may show enough evidence it works to seek regulatory approval for that disease.

Success is hardly assured. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration under Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has appeared hostile toward the mRNA technology underlying Moderna’s therapy, but recently approved the company’s flu vaccine. It’s also unclear what margins might be on personalized vaccines.

Those are questions for another day, however. Today, investors can dream of breakthrough after breakthrough.

Significant progress in preventing the recurrence of melanoma is great news, but it’s not worth over $30 billion to Moderna. Yet the biotech company added this amount to its equity value on Wednesday's of the milestone. The market is counting on the company’s personalized oncology vaccine racking up wins in far more than just skin cancer.