Moderna-Merck melanoma vaccine data boosts outlook, but analysts await full results
MRNA•What analysts and experts said
Trung Huynh, analyst at RBC Capital Markets
"The strength of the underlying data must have been compelling to trigger significance at the interim analysis, meaningfully exceeding investor expectations. We expect a significant 'halo effect' across the robust program."
Geoffrey Meacham, analyst at Citi
"Detailed RFS (recurrence free survival) and DMFS (distant metastasis-free survival) hazard ratios, absolute landmark rates, confidence intervals, stage-specific analyses, event timing, treatment receipt, manufacturing turnaround, and safety will determine the readout's clinical and commercial quality."
"Until then, today's announcement confirms a positive trial but does not establish how far the efficacy exceeded the statistical threshold or how much value should be assigned to Intismeran and the broader oncology platform."
Andrew Tsai, analyst at Jefferies
"Expect the vaccine for melanoma to enter the market in 2027... in theory, the worldwide peak sales potential in melanoma alone could be multi billion on a majority market share (before 50/50 split), especially if the partners market the product ex-U.S."
Lale Akoner, global market strategist for eToro
"Moderna and Merck's melanoma vaccine success is a major confidence boost for investors... the sharp share-price reaction reflects that potential."
