Moderna Projects $305M Q1 Revenue with $200M UK Booster, Eyes 10% Growth
Moderna booked a $950M upfront payment and may face up to $1.3B more pending appeal. Q1 2026 revenues are projected at $305M—including $200M from the UK COVID booster program and $50M from a Pennsylvania partnership—as management targets up to 10% revenue growth driven by ex-US markets.
1. Q1 Revenue Projections
Moderna expects first-quarter 2026 revenues of $305 million, including $200 million from the UK COVID booster program and $50 million from a collaboration with Pennsylvania-based partners. These forecasts align with management’s view that both U.S. and international markets will support the company’s full-year guidance.
2. Litigation Payment Update
The company recorded a $950 million upfront legal payment in Q1 and faces the potential for up to $1.3 billion more depending on an ongoing appeal. This resolution reduces litigation uncertainty and clarifies future cash flow impacts for the year.
3. International Growth Focus
Moderna is emphasizing ex-US opportunities as pandemic-era agreements expire, with analysts expecting new deals in multiple markets. The UK agreement alone contributed an estimated $200 million in Q1, highlighting international expansion as a key growth driver.
4. Vaccine Portfolio Outlook
Analysts trimmed respiratory syncytial virus vaccine revenue projections, labeling it a “show-me story,” while raising COVID-19 expectations based on updated vaccination assumptions. Investors will also watch for influenza vaccine submission updates and data timing for the intismeran candidate.