Moderna Q4 Beats Estimates, Sees 10% 2026 Growth Despite FDA Flu Shot Setback
Moderna posted a Q4 loss of $2.11 versus an expected $2.59 and revenue of $678 million versus $626 million estimates, cutting expenses by $2.2 billion in 2025. It forecasts up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 from $1.94B but received an FDA refusal-to-file on its mRNA-1010 flu vaccine.
1. Fourth-Quarter Results
Moderna reported a Q4 net loss of $2.11 per share on $678 million revenue—beating loss and sales expectations—driven by COVID-19 vaccine sales of $264 million in the U.S. and $381 million internationally, although total revenue fell 30% year over year. The company reduced operating expenses by approximately $2.2 billion in 2025, surpassing its cost-cut targets.
2. 2026 Financial Outlook
Management projects up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 on a $1.94 billion 2025 base, targeting an even U.S./international split. It forecasts cost of sales at about $0.9 billion, R&D expenses of $3.0 billion, SG&A expenses of $1.0 billion, and year-end cash and investments of $5.5 to $6.0 billion.
3. FDA Flu Vaccine Setback
The FDA issued a refusal-to-file letter for Moderna’s investigational mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine due to comparator choice issues, delaying review. Analysts warn this setback could lower the odds for subsequent combo flu/COVID candidates and push back the path to cash breakeven in 2028.