Moderna Q4 Revenue Forecast to Slide 31.7% to $660M with $2.64 Loss
Analysts forecast Q4 revenue to drop 31.7% year-on-year to $660.2 million with an adjusted loss of $2.64 per share after last quarter’s 32.2% revenue beat on $1.02 billion. Consensus estimates stayed flat ahead of earnings, while peers Biogen and Amgen beat forecasts with 7.1% sales decline and 8.6% growth, respectively.
1. Q4 Earnings Expectations
Analysts project Moderna’s Q4 revenue will fall 31.7% to $660.2 million with an adjusted loss of $2.64 per share. This follows a prior quarter where the company generated $1.02 billion and delivered a 32.2% beat on revenue.
2. Last Quarter Performance and Track Record
In the previous quarter, Moderna surpassed consensus revenue estimates by 32.2% and has exceeded top-line forecasts by an average of 30.9% over the past two years, missing estimates only once in that span.
3. Peer Performance Comparison
Biogen reported a 7.1% revenue decline in Q4, topping estimates by 3.6%, while Amgen delivered an 8.6% sales increase, beating forecasts by 4.1%; Biogen and Amgen shares rose 4.6% and 8.2%, respectively.
4. Estimate Stability and Outlook
Consensus forecasts for Moderna remained unchanged over the past 30 days ahead of the report. The average analyst price target stands at $38.40 versus the current share level, and potential trade policy and tax changes could influence next-year guidance.