Momentum Global flags France 10-year OAT-Bund spread above 140 bps as fiscal risks intensify
TLT•Momentum Global Investment Management flagged France’s 10-year OAT-Bund spread above 140 basis points as the OAT yield reached about 4.6%, an 18-year high.
1. French bond spreads widen
Momentum Global Investment Management said France’s 10-year OAT-Bund spread had risen above 140 basis points, nearly doubling since the start of 2026 and moving above comparable spreads for Italy and Greece. Its analysis linked the move to debt near 120% of GDP, a projected 5.4% deficit, political fragmentation and doubts over €54 billion in cuts; it warned sustained stress could tighten European financial conditions, while bank spreads and CDS remained below 2012 extremes.
