Mondelez Analysts Rate Moderate Buy with $66 Target as Q3 EPS Misses Estimates

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Fourteen Buy, seven Hold and one Sell recommendations give Mondelez International a consensus Moderate Buy rating with an average 12-month price target of $66.00. Capital International Investors boosted its stake by 9.7% to 78.56 million shares worth $4.91 billion, while the company missed Q3 estimates with $0.73 EPS on $9.74 billion revenue, up 5.9% year-over-year.

1. Recent Earnings and Guidance Review

In the latest quarter, Mondelez International reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, just shy of analyst expectations by $0.01, on revenues of $9.74 billion—0.2% below consensus. Net margin stood at 9.38%, down from 11.5% a year earlier, while return on equity reached 14.16%. Revenue growth of 5.9% year-over-year was driven by pricing actions in emerging markets and higher volumes in biscuits. Management set full-year guidance at $2.86 EPS, compared with the average analyst forecast of $2.90, citing extended margin recovery due to elevated input costs and ongoing supply-chain optimization investments.

2. Dividend Profile and Payout Metrics

Mondelez recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, representing an annualized yield of 3.5% and a payout ratio of 74.9%. The steady payout underscores the company’s commitment to returning cash to shareholders, even as profit margins remain under pressure. Free cash flow declined by 8% year-over-year, but cash conversion remains robust at 88%, supporting the sustainability of the current dividend level in the near term.

3. Analyst Consensus and Rating Shifts

A survey of twenty-two research firms yields a consensus recommendation of Moderate Buy: fourteen Buy ratings, seven Hold ratings and one Sell rating. The average 12-month price objective stands at $66.00. Notable recent actions include Sanford C. Bernstein trimming its target from $85 to $84 while maintaining an Outperform rating, DZ Bank upgrading from Sell to Buy, Berenberg Bank moving from Buy to Hold with a $70 target, UBS lowering its target from $63 to $60 and Zacks Research downgrading to Strong Sell. These revisions reflect varying views on margin recovery timing and valuation appeal.

4. Institutional Ownership and Positioning

Institutional investors hold roughly 78.3% of the company’s shares. In the latest quarter, Capital International Investors increased its stake by 9.7% to 78.6 million shares (approximately $4.9 billion invested), and JPMorgan Chase added 17.1% to reach 69.6 million shares (around $4.35 billion). State Street grew its holding by 1.5% to 60.3 million shares ($3.8 billion), while Geode Capital Management added 0.8% to 28.95 million shares ($1.94 billion). Notably, Norges Bank established a new position valued at $1.24 billion, underscoring continued confidence among large asset managers despite near-term margin headwinds.

Sources

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