Mondelez Favored as El Niño Risk Could Cut Cocoa Costs 37% in 2027
MDLZ•Analysts warn an ~80% chance of El Niño this year could slash cocoa production by high-single digits, pushing the global stock-to-grind ratio to 23.8%, below 2024’s record 26.5%. They project Mondelez’s cocoa input costs to tumble 37% in 2027, bolstering margins across its snack brands.
1. Cocoa Supply Constraints and Price Trends
Global cocoa inventories remain tight after prices surged to nearly $13,000 per metric ton in early 2024 before easing to around $3,000 per ton by late 2025, with recent rebounds signaling persistent supply constraints.
2. El Niño Risk and Production Impact
An approximately 80% probability of El Niño this year could trim cocoa output by a high-single-digit percentage, potentially lowering the global stock-to-grinding ratio to about 23.8%, below the 26.5% record low seen in 2024.
3. Implications for Mondelez
Analysts project that these dynamics could reduce Mondelez’s cocoa input costs by roughly 37% year-over-year in 2027, enhancing margins across brands like Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone given its status as a major cocoa consumer.
