MongoDB Shares Tumble 19.6% After Q4 Beat, Soft Q1 Guidance Sparks Price Target Cuts
The company reported Q4 EPS of $1.65 versus $1.45 estimate and revenue of $695.1 million, exceeding the $667.2 million consensus. Weak Q1 guidance of $1.15–$1.19 EPS and $659–$664 million revenue prompted analysts to cut price targets by 14%–34% and shares plunged 19.6% to $261.30.
1. Earnings Beat and Weak Guidance
The company delivered Q4 EPS of $1.65 against the $1.45 estimate and revenue of $695.07 million versus $667.15 million consensus, marking 26.7% year-over-year growth. It projected Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.19 and revenue of $659–$664 million, below analyst expectations of $1.21 and $661.94 million.
2. Analyst Price Target Reductions
Major firms lowered targets: Needham cut from $500 to $300, Rosenblatt from $425 to $385, Scotiabank from $415 to $275 and Cantor Fitzgerald from $454 to $378, reflecting concerns over near-term growth. Ratings remained Buy, Overweight or Sector Perform, but with tempered upside forecasts.
3. Market Reaction and Outlook
Shares fell 19.6% to $261.30 as investors weighed softer guidance. Analysts highlighted strong enterprise AI data demand but noted pressure on new logo growth and adjusted expectations for 2026 performance.