Moody’s Recession Model Hits 49% While Firm Rates First Bitcoin-Backed Bond Ba2
Moody’s AI recession model signals 49% odds of a U.S. downturn—one point below its 50% trigger that’s never been wrong in 80 years—after February’s 92,000 job losses, 0.7% GDP and oil supply disruptions. The agency also rated New Hampshire’s inaugural Bitcoin-backed bond Ba2, two notches below investment grade.
1. Recession Model Approaches Critical Threshold
Moody’s AI-driven U.S. recession model climbed to 49% odds in February, just one point below the 50% threshold that has never failed to precede a downturn in eight decades. The reading reflects 92,000 net job losses, a revised 0.7% GDP growth and wartime disruptions removing 20% of global oil output and pushing prices above $100 per barrel.
2. Moody’s Assigns Ba2 to Bitcoin-Backed Bond
The New Hampshire Business Finance Authority’s inaugural Bitcoin-backed bond received a Ba2 rating from Moody’s, two notches below investment grade, reflecting digital currency volatility and structural risks. The bonds are collateralized by Bitcoin loans, carry no exposure to public funds and mark the agency’s first rated crypto asset security.