Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $90, Flags China Home Sales Decline
MS•Morgan Stanley cut its Dated Brent forecast to $90 per barrel for Q3 and to $80 for Q4 after an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts project Chinese secondary home sales will turn negative in Q3 and flag a near 20% pullback in developer shares since May.
1. Oil-Price Forecast Revision
Morgan Stanley lowered its Dated Brent forecast to $90 per barrel for Q3, down from $100, and to $80 per barrel for Q4, citing an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The bank assumes 50% of lost Persian Gulf production returns by September and 80% by December, with full normalization by early 2027.
2. China Property Sector Outlook
MS analysts project Chinese secondary home sales will turn negative in the third quarter and note a near 20% pullback in developer share prices since May. They highlight a divergence between improving prices in higher-tier cities and continued pressure in lower-tier markets, suggesting selective equity exposure ahead of half-year earnings reports.
