Morgan Stanley Cuts Oracle Price Target by $100 as Shares Fall 2.2%

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Oracle’s shares have plunged over 50%, sliding another 2.2% after Morgan Stanley cut its price target by more than $100, citing heavy AI data-center costs and debt concerns. Guggenheim’s John DeFucci still projects a $400 target, highlighting its 'Bring Your Own Chip' strategy and rising RPOs.

1. Oracle Gains Control of U.S. TikTok Operations

Oracle has become the managing investor in the newly formed joint venture responsible for TikTok’s U.S. operations, securing operational oversight and a significant revenue-sharing arrangement. Under the agreement, Oracle will host U.S. user data on its cloud infrastructure and apply its security protocols, while retaining the authority to approve all software updates. The deal is expected to contribute an incremental low-single-digit percentage to Oracle’s annual cloud revenue over the next two years and bolster its data center utilization by approximately 5%, enhancing free cash flow generation as hosting fees and management services ramp up.

2. Debt Burden and AI Investment Under Scrutiny

Despite its strategic positioning, Oracle’s substantial debt load—equivalent to over three times its annual operating income—remains a focal point for credit analysts. The company has committed more than $1.5 billion in capital expenditures toward AI-optimized data centers this fiscal year, purchasing tens of thousands of high-performance GPUs under a ‘bring your own chip’ model. Some Wall Street firms have lowered earnings forecasts due to potential pressure on Oracle’s investment-grade rating if leverage fails to improve. Conversely, bullish strategists argue that depreciation of AI hardware costs and growing backlog of revenue-producing cloud contracts could drive a measurable improvement in the debt ratio by next fiscal year.

3. Institutional Moves, Earnings Beat and Dividend Growth

In the latest quarter, Oracle reported 14% year-over-year revenue growth and delivered earnings per share that surpassed consensus estimates by 38%. Institutional reshuffling saw Alpha Cubed Investments reduce its stake by 60%, while Darwin Wealth more than doubled its exposure, citing confidence in the AI services pipeline. Insider activity included executive sales representing less than 1% of individual holdings, signaling limited conviction risk. Oracle also increased its quarterly dividend by 6% year-over-year, maintaining a payout ratio below 40% and preserving flexibility to deploy cash toward debt reduction and targeted acquisitions.

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