Morgan Stanley Lifts Ferrari Price Target to €380, Citing 24% Upside
RACE•Morgan Stanley upgraded Ferrari to Overweight and raised its price target to €380 from €330, citing a 24% upside after shares fell 26% over the past year. Dealer checks show residual values for the 296 GTB and SF90 stabilizing and no lasting brand damage from electrification or slower growth.
1. Morgan Stanley Upgrade
Morgan Stanley upgraded Ferrari to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to €380 from €330, implying roughly 24% upside. The firm argued recent selloff has overemphasized temporary risks rather than Ferrari’s long-term brand strength.
2. Share Performance and Valuation
Ferrari shares have declined about 26% over the past twelve months, driven primarily by multiple compression despite consensus earnings estimates for 2026–27 being trimmed by only around 4%. This divergence suggests investors have priced in structural brand risks beyond modest earnings revisions.
3. Dealer Feedback and Residual Values
U.S. and European dealer checks indicate residual values for the 296 GTB are at or near the floor with transaction activity picking up, while SF90 Coupe and Spider values appear to be stabilizing. Electrification efforts have also rekindled collector interest in older internal-combustion models, supporting the overall value ecosystem.
4. Luce Reception and Structural Tailwinds
Initial dealer feedback on the €550,000 Luce battery-electric vehicle has been mixed, but disciplined production allocation can limit brand damage while preserving option value for new clients. Projected growth of 235,000 ultra-high-net-worth individuals between 2026 and 2031 underpins Ferrari’s luxury positioning.
