Morgan Stanley raises Brent forecasts on slow Mid-East recovery

The table below lists price forecasts after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement: | Brokerage/Agency | Brent 2026 | Brent 2027 | WTI 2026 | WTI 2027 | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Morgan Stanley | | | | | Aug 23 | Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and Q4 2026 to $100/bbl; raises Q1 2027 forecast to $95/bbl, Q2 2027 to $90/bbl, Q3 2027 to $80/bbl and Q4 2027 to $75/bbl | | UBS | | | | | Aug 18 | Sees Brent crude at $85/bbl end of Dec-26, $80/bbl over end-March to end-Sept 2027 period | | Citi | | $65 | | | Aug 7 | Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $75/bbl | | Goldman | | | | | | Expects Brent in $80-$90 range until U.S.-Iran deal or major escalation | | ANZ | | | | | July 24 | Maintains end-Q3 2026 Brent forecast of $92/bbl | | HSBC | $80.00 ($95 previously) | $65.00 ($75 previously) | | | July 8 | | | Barclays | $96 ($100 previously) | $85 ($88 previously) | $90 | $82 | June 26, 2026 | Sees Brent at $100/bbl for Q3 2026 and $95/bbl for Q4 2026 | | Macquarie | $77.09 ($89.28 previously) | $64 ($74.50 previously) | $71.42 ($82.93 previously) | $60 ($70.50 previously) | June 24, 2026 | | | J.P. Morgan | $85 ($96 previously) | - | $80 ($89 previously) | $59 ($70 previously) | June 24, 2026 | | | Commerzbank | | | | | June 19, 2026 | Expects Brent to trade at $80/bbl by end-2026 | | BofA | $82 | $70 | $78 | $66 | June 17, 2026 | | Oil prices slipped more than $1 a barrel on Monday as investors took profits ahead of an expected announcement from Washington about imposing more sanctions on Iran that may further disrupt supplies from the Middle East. O/R Both contracts posted their second consecutive weekly gains last week, up more than 5%, as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran hit a stalemate, capping oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which a fifth of the world's supply used to transit. Morgan Stanley also highlighted an unusual gap between crude and refined products, with the ICE gasoil contract trading near $175 a barrel against Brent at about $92, producing an all-time-high crack spread of $75. Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent crude price forecasts for the coming quarters, saying Middle East supply is recovering more slowly than expected, leaving the oil market in deficit throughout the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027. * "Crude is tightening. Recent weeks have seen one of the sharpest declines in oil-on-water, whilst onshore inventories are declining as well, including in China," Morgan Stanley said in a note on Sunday. * The bank sees a more drawn-out Middle East supply recovery, leaving the market in deficit throughout 4Q and 1Q, it said, adding that it revises its Brent forecasts higher, peaking at $100/b in 4Q. * The bank forecasts Brent oil at $90 per barrel in Q3 2026, $100 in Q4 2026, $95 in Q1 2027 and $90 in Q2 2027, versus its previous assumption of $75 for all these quarters. * "We slow our assumption for Middle East supply recovery, which now takes well into 2027 on our new estimates," the bank said.

Morgan Stanley raises Brent forecasts on slow Mid-East recovery

Other recent Brent forecasts

Oil market context and refined-product spread

Morgan Stanley raises Brent forecasts as supply recovery slows

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Brokerage/Agency	Brent 2027	Forecasts as of	Price Targets
Morgan Stanley		Aug 23	Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and Q4 2026 to $100/bbl; raises Q1 2027 forecast to $95/bbl, Q2 2027 to $90/bbl, Q3 2027 to $80/bbl and Q4 2027 to $75/bbl
UBS		Aug 18	Sees Brent crude at $85/bbl end of Dec-26, $80/bbl over end-March to end-Sept 2027 period
Citi	$65	Aug 7	Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $75/bbl
Goldman