Morgan Stanley Raises Garmin Price Target 29% to $252 on Robust 2025 Results
Morgan Stanley upgraded Garmin to Equal Weight and raised its price target 29% to $252, citing conservative 2026 revenue and margin guidance. Garmin delivered record 2025 results with $7.246B revenue (+15%), Q4 sales of $2.125B (+17%), and approved a 17% higher $4.20 dividend alongside a $500M buyback.
1. Morgan Stanley Upgrade and Price Target Raise
On February 19, Morgan Stanley upgraded Garmin to Equal Weight from Underweight and increased its price target by 29% to $252 from $195. The firm cited stronger-than-expected 2026 revenue and margin guidance—viewed as conservative—as the primary catalyst for the upgrade.
2. Record 2025 Financial Performance
Garmin reported full-year 2025 consolidated revenue of $7.246 billion, up 15% year over year, and fourth-quarter revenue of $2.125 billion, up 17%, marking its first quarter above $2 billion. Pro forma EPS for the year was $8.56, a 16% increase, while Q4 EPS rose 16% to $2.79. The company ended 2025 with approximately $4.1 billion in cash and marketable securities and generated about $1.4 billion in free cash flow.
3. Capital Return Initiatives
Garmin proposed a $4.20 annual dividend, representing a 17% increase, and secured board approval for a $500 million share repurchase program. These actions reflect the company’s focus on returning capital to shareholders following record sales and cash flow generation.
4. 2026 Guidance and Outlook
Management guided 2026 consolidated revenue to roughly $7.9 billion, gross margin near 58.5%, operating margin around 25.5%, and operating income above $2.0 billion for the first time. Pro forma EPS is projected at about $9.35, with anticipated memory cost pressures and tariffs offset by favorable product mix and supply chain initiatives.