Morgan Stanley Raises Rocket Lab Target to $105; Neutron Tank Test Fails

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On Jan 16, Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab's rating to Overweight and raised its price target to $105 from $67. On Jan 21, a Neutron Stage 1 tank ruptured during hydrostatic testing; the next tank is in production and schedule impact will be detailed on the Q4 earnings call.

1. Stellar 2025 Financial Performance

Rocket Lab delivered a breakout year in 2025, with consolidated revenue through the first nine months rising 39% to $422 million. Gross profit nearly doubled from $79 million to $140 million, while backlog expanded 56% to $510 million, providing multi-year visibility on launch and space systems contracts. Although still unprofitable, the company narrowed its third-quarter loss per share to $0.03 from $0.10 a year earlier, reflecting improved operating leverage across its launch business and spacecraft component divisions.

2. Neutron Stage 1 Qualification Test Update

In a recent hydrostatic pressure trial, Rocket Lab intentionally pushed its Neutron Stage 1 tank to failure, resulting in a rupture designed to validate structural margins. The test structure and facilities sustained no significant damage, and a second tank is already in production. Rocket Lab’s engineering team is analyzing test data to assess any impact on the Neutron development timeline and will provide a detailed schedule update during its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call in February.

3. Morgan Stanley Upgrade Fuels Optimism

On January 16, 2026, Morgan Stanley raised its rating on Rocket Lab from Equal Weight to Overweight and increased its price target to $105, the highest on Wall Street. The firm cited the company’s broadening service offerings—from small-satellite launches to in-house manufacturing of spacecraft components—and reinforced confidence in management’s ability to capture a growing share of the $20 billion small-launch market over the next five years.

4. Recent Share Rally and Forward Outlook

Over the past three months, shares of Rocket Lab have surged approximately 50%, driven by a reported 10% sequential increase in fourth-quarter revenue and a 36% uplift in valuation metrics. Investors have been buoyed by a stronger-than-expected manifest of launch contracts and preliminary component orders for Neutron, while institutional interest remains high as the company positions itself as a vertically integrated space infrastructure provider.

Sources

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