Morgan Stanley Sets $29 Price Target for Invesco, Cites AUM and Fee Growth

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On January 26, Morgan Stanley set a $29 price target on Invesco, implying 2.11% upside. Analysts project Invesco’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results will benefit from a 2.1% rise in AUM to $2.17 trillion and a jump in performance fees to $30.8 million.

1. Strong Q4 Earnings Performance

Invesco reported fourth-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.62, surpassing consensus estimates by 8.8%, driven by an 8.8% year-over-year increase in adjusted net revenues to $1.259 billion. The quarter included a non-cash intangible impairment charge of $1.8 billion, which depressed GAAP diluted EPS to negative $2.61, but the adjusted operating margin of 36.4% reflected disciplined expense management and positive operating leverage. Performance fees climbed to $28.9 million, up significantly from the prior quarter, fueled by strong returns in multi-asset and private markets real estate strategies.

2. Record AUM Growth and Net Flows

Assets under management reached a record $2.17 trillion at quarter end, up 17.5% year-over-year and 2.1% sequentially, supported by market gains of $10.7 billion and net long-term inflows of $19.1 billion. ETFs and index products accounted for $11.9 billion of net inflows, while the China joint venture contributed $8.9 billion. On a regional basis, Asia Pacific and EMEA saw net long-term inflows of $14.1 billion and $6.2 billion respectively, offsetting $1.2 billion of outflows in the Americas. Money market products experienced modest outflows of $0.3 billion.

3. Analyst Outlook and Strategic Priorities

Morgan Stanley has set a one-year target implying upside potential of 2.1%, citing projected performance fee growth to $30.8 million next quarter and continued AUM appreciation. Management’s priorities include further deleveraging through preferred stock repurchases and debt repayment—$740 million of obligations were settled in Q4—and the recent conversion of the QQQ Trust to an open-end fund structure. Investors will be watching funding stability, rate volatility and performance in the firm’s strategic segments, particularly ETFs, index solutions and its China joint venture, as determinants of sustainable margin expansion and earnings growth.

Sources

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