ASML Holding is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28 before the market opens. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv project revenue of approximately €7.5 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of roughly 15%, and earnings per share of €7.80. The company’s backlog stood at a record €49 billion at the end of Q3, providing strong visibility into early 2026 equipment shipments and supporting consensus full-year 2026 revenue growth of about 20%. Investors will closely monitor ASML’s Q4 gross margin guidance, which management has previously targeted around 52% to 54%, as well as any updates to 2026 capital expenditure expectations from key customers.

ASML’s exclusive position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology underpins its growth outlook. Foundry leader TSMC has announced plans to increase 2026 capex by 32% to $54 billion, allocating up to 80% toward advanced process nodes that require EUV machines. Memory giant Micron intends to boost capital spending by 45% to $20 billion in its fiscal 2026 to address high-bandwidth memory shortages. Industry association SEMI forecasts a 69% expansion in advanced chipmaking capacity through 2028, positioning ASML to benefit from sustained order flow for its EUV platforms for nodes at 7 nanometers and below.

In a recent note, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case price target for ASML to $2,407, implying potential upside of more than 70% from current levels. The bank forecasts ASML’s earnings could nearly double to €46 per share by 2027, compared with an estimated €24.78 per share for 2025. Assuming a technology-sector average forward P/E multiple of 44.7x, Morgan Stanley’s model suggests substantial share price appreciation as 2027 consensus estimates are exceeded. Other sell-side firms maintain price targets in the $1,800 to $2,000 range, citing continued strength in EUV machine pricing and services revenue growth of over 25%.

While ASML’s technological moat remains strong—being the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems—risks include potential supply-chain disruptions for high-precision components and geopolitical tensions that could affect export licenses. Currency fluctuations between the euro and U.S. dollar may introduce earnings variability, and any slowdown in AI investment or semiconductor capex cycles could pressure near-term order volumes. Over the long term, ASML’s development of high-NA EUV tools and expansion of service offerings are expected to drive sustainable double-digit revenue growth and reinforce its leadership in advanced lithography.