Morgan Stanley Sees AI Debt Issuance Doubling to $570B in 2026
MS•Morgan Stanley projects global AI-related debt issuance will reach $570 billion in 2026, more than double 2025’s total, with $236 billion issued through May alone. The bank anticipates hyperscaler capital spending will exceed $1 trillion in 2027, driving increased bond underwriting demand.
1. Forecast for 2026 AI Debt Issuance
Morgan Stanley projects AI-related debt issuance will hit $570 billion in 2026, more than twice the $236 billion issued through May. This forecast reflects a rapid acceleration from 2025’s total as technology firms seek external financing to support expansion.
2. Year-to-Date Issuance Trends
Through the end of May, global AI debt issuance reached $236 billion, quadrupling the comparable period last year. Hyperscalers have broadened funding sources by selling bonds outside the U.S. dollar market and semiconductors are favoring amortizing structures with nearer-term maturities.
3. Underwriting and Market Impact
With hyperscaler capital expenditures on pace to consume nearly all operating cash flow, the bank expects heightened bond underwriting activity. Major technology issuers, including leading hyperscalers, raised $121 billion in U.S. corporate bonds in 2025 compared with an annual average of $28 billion from 2020 to 2024.
4. Influence on Bond Indexes and Portfolios
The surge in AI-linked issuance is reshaping bond indexes, increasing issuing companies’ weights and driving passive fund inflows. Target-date and retirement funds holding those index strategies now carry substantial indirect exposure to AI infrastructure debt.
