Morgan Stanley Sees US$1 Trillion Robotaxi Market by 2040 from China Cost Cuts
TSLA•Morgan Stanley forecasts that China’s robotaxi supply chain cost reductions could expand the global autonomous taxi market to US$1 trillion by 2040. Tesla and Waymo are expected to lead global deployments as Baidu, Xpeng and WeRide accelerate fleet scale within China.
1. Cost Reductions in China’s Robotaxi Supply Chain
Morgan Stanley analysts highlight that local manufacturing scale for sensors, chips and vehicle components in China has driven down unit supply chain costs, making large-scale robotaxi deployment financially viable for both domestic and international operators.
2. Growth Outlook: US$1 Trillion Market by 2040
The global autonomous taxi sector is projected to generate US$1 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, propelled by lower capital and operating costs, expanded urban pilot programs and rising consumer adoption in key markets across Asia, North America and Europe.
3. Leading Players and Competitive Dynamics
Tesla and Waymo are positioned as front-runners in worldwide robotaxi rollouts, while Chinese competitors Baidu, Xpeng and WeRide are rapidly scaling their fleets in major cities to secure domestic market share and technological leadership.
