Morgan Stanley Warns Hormuz Closure Risks 21 mbpd Cuts, Brent to $80
Morgan Stanley’s commodity team warns that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could sideline exports of roughly 21 million barrels per day, risking backwardation in the 30-day forward market and potentially driving Brent futures toward $80 per barrel within two weeks. The bank highlights that OPEC spare capacity could be fully exhausted by late May if disruptions persist.
1. Morgan Stanley Issues Hormuz Risk Alert
Morgan Stanley’s oil analysts caution that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond one week, up to 21 million barrels per day of crude exports would be effectively offline. This risk, they say, would flip the 30-day forward curve into backwardation, erase remaining OPEC spare capacity by late May and set the stage for Brent futures to test $80 within a fortnight.