Morning bid Americas: Trillion dollar trade
SPY•US headline inflation is expected to reach 3.7% in September as oil prices hover around $106 a barrel, while core inflation is forecast at 2.5%. China’s exports rose 36% year over year, and its trade surplus reached $938 billion in the first nine months of the year, putting it on track to top $1 trillion.
1. Inflation and interest rates
Market attention turned to the US September inflation report, with headline inflation expected to reach 3.7% as oil prices remained near $106 a barrel amid Middle East tensions. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is expected to be about 2.5%. New York Fed chief John Williams said another rate hike may be needed by year end but saw no reason to expect one in 2027; futures markets are priced for three more rate rises.
2. Banks and China trade
US bank stocks fell after JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reported unexpectedly large hits to fixed-income trading during a volatile quarter. Citigroup lost more than 5%. China’s exports rose 36% year over year in September, while its trade surplus totaled $938 billion for the first nine months of the year, putting it on course to exceed $1 trillion a month earlier than last year.
