Morning bid Americas: Yield to worst
TLT•Global bond yields rose sharply in the third quarter, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5.34%, a 24-year high, while equities continued to rise. Investors also weighed rate decisions, oil and diesel supply concerns, tariff cuts, Anthropic’s IPO prospectus and Nvidia’s $150 billion increase in its buyback authorization.
1. Bond yields climb
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level in 24 years, after rising more than 80 basis points in the third quarter. Yields fell after a sharp rally that day, while France’s yields approached 5% and the spread between French and German sovereign bonds widened past 140 basis points, its largest level since 2012.
2. Rates and energy risks
New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency” on another rate hike in October, and the implied probability of an increase fell from around 70% to below 50%. Australia’s central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, while markets were betting on another Bank of Japan rate increase in December. Brent crude rose more than 4% on Thursday; diesel supply remained a concern as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports.
3. Companies and trade
The U.S. and China said they would pursue tariff cuts on $60 billion worth of goods imported from each other. Anthropic’s IPO prospectus showed revenue of nearly $4.6 billion in 2025, up 12-fold, and operating losses of more than $8 billion. Nvidia increased its share buyback authorization by $150 billion.
