Morningstar Doubles Fair-Value to $850, Warns of 50% Revenue Drop by 2030
MORN•Morningstar raised Micron's fair value estimate to $850 from $455 after reporting a 346% revenue surge to $41 billion and non-GAAP gross margin expansion to 85%. It projects an 'unprecedented cyclical upswing' through 2028 before forecasting revenue declines exceeding 50% in 2029-2030 due to an anticipated memory chip supply glut.
1. Fair-Value Raised to $850
Morningstar lifted its fair-value estimate for Micron to $850 from $455 after the chipmaker posted a 346% year-over-year revenue increase to $41 billion and achieved an 85% non-GAAP gross margin.
2. Expected Upswing Through 2028
The research notes an unprecedented cyclical upswing driven by robust AI memory demand, projecting sustained revenue growth and elevated pricing levels through 2028.
3. Forecasted 2029-2030 Downcycle
Despite near-term strength, Morningstar warns of a more than 50% revenue decline in 2029-2030 as surging memory chip production could trigger an oversupply glut and commodity-like price compression.
