Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion fair value versus a $1.8 trillion IPO target, using a DCF of $611 billion for launch plus Starlink and $170 billion for AI. Analysts note 83% launch share, Starlink’s 50% revenue growth to $11.3 billion; governance risks from Musk’s 85% voting control, xAI acquisition.
Morningstar's analysts set SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion, under the $1.8 trillion IPO target, using a DCF model that allocates $611 billion to core launch and Starlink operations and $170 billion to AI scenarios.
SpaceX carried 83% of global orbital launch mass in 2025 while reducing per-launch costs by over 95%. The Starlink division reported 50% revenue growth to $11.3 billion and operating income above $4.4 billion last year.
Analysts modeled three probability-weighted outcomes for SpaceX's AI operations, including a 7% chance of a $1.3 trillion 'moonshot' scenario and a 43% probability of a no-go outcome that would eliminate more than $81 billion in value.
SpaceX plans to offer about 3% of shares publicly following private funding rounds, including a $250 billion xAI acquisition valuing the combined business near $1.5 trillion. Governance concerns revolve around Elon Musk's 85% voting control and related-party deal terms.
