Mosaic Projects 7M Ton Phosphate, 9M Ton Potash and $250M Q1 Headwind
Despite a late-2025 drop in U.S. phosphate demand, Mosaic forecasts production of at least 7 million tons of phosphate and 9 million tons of potash in 2026, targeting a $300–500 million working-capital release and free cash flow. Management noted a $250 million Q1 EBITDA headwind from higher sulfur costs.
1. Fourth-Quarter Demand and Market Share Gains
Fourth-quarter U.S. phosphate demand fell sharply due to affordability challenges, but improved spring inquiries and resilient North America sales helped Mosaic claim market share gains. Global phosphate fundamentals remained supportive, driven by China’s export restrictions and rising demand for phosphoric acid in lithium iron phosphate batteries.
2. 2026 Production Guidance and Financial Targets
For 2026, Mosaic expects to produce at least 7 million tons of phosphate and 9 million tons of potash, target a $300–500 million working-capital release, and generate free cash flow despite approximately $1.5 billion in capital expenditures. Management views stripping margins above $300 per ton as constructive for cushioning raw-material volatility.
3. Sulfur Cost Pressures and Cost Efficiency Measures
High sulfur prices are projected to create a roughly $250 million headwind to first-quarter EBITDA, with each $10 increase in sulfur adding $10 million in quarterly expenses. In response, Mosaic has idled its lowest-margin Brazilian operations and achieved structural cost improvements, reducing phosphate conversion cost to $112 per ton in Q4.
4. Operational Performance and Facility Outlook
Operational performance improved across key facilities, with Florida rock production at a three-year high and Miski Mayo mining output at record levels. Phosphate operating factors approached 80% at Bartow, Louisiana, and Riverview, while potash operations returned to full rates at Esterhazy and ramped HydroFloat, positioning for record 2026 production.