Most brokerages see Fed on hold, but hawkish view grows
SPY•Brokerage forecasts for 2026
| Brokerage | Total cuts/hikes in 2026 | No. of cuts/hikes in 2026 | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 50 bps of cuts | 2 (in October and December) | 3.00%-3.25% |
| Wells Fargo | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| UBS Global Research | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Goldman Sachs | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Nomura | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Barclays | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Morgan Stanley | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| HSBC | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| J.P. Morgan | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Standard Chartered | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Societe Generale | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% |
| BofA Global Research | 75 bps of hikes | 3 (September, October and December) | 4.25%-4.50% |
| Deutsche Bank | 50 bps of hikes | 2 (September and December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
| Macquarie | Rate hike in Q4 2026 | - | 3.75%-4.00% |
| BNP Paribas | 25 bps rate hike | 1 (December) | 3.75%-4.00% |
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Shinjini Ganguli and Eileen Soreng)
