Murphy Oil Delivers $109.6M Q4 Free Cash Flow, Raises 2026 Capex to $1.2B
Murphy Oil reported Q4 adjusted net income of $19.7 million and $109.6 million free cash flow, producing 181,431 BOEPD and returning $46 million to shareholders. Full-year 2025 saw 182,294 BOEPD, a 7% drilling cost reduction, 103% reserve replacement to 715 MMBOE and $1.2–$1.3 billion capex guidance for 2026.
1. Enhanced Vietnam Asset Outlook
Following the December Drill Stem Tests (DST) on the Hai Su Vang-2X appraisal well, Murphy Oil raised its midpoint recoverable resource estimate toward the high end of its prior 170–430 MMBOE guidance range. The combined DST flow rate of approximately 12,000 BOPD from the primary reservoir underscores the field’s commercial potential. This appraisal success prompted the company to increase its internal net present value (discounted at 10%) estimate for the Vietnam portfolio by roughly 15%, reflecting higher confidence in reservoir continuity and deliverability.
2. Appraisal Program to Define Hai Su Vang Field
Building on Hai Su Vang-2X, Murphy plans to drill two additional appraisal wells in 2026 to delineate reservoir boundaries and assess fluid contacts. The wells will target the Golden Sea Lion reservoir at depths between 8,500 and 9,200 feet subsea, with individual well costs estimated at $45–50 million. Geophysical reinterpretation indicates a potential lateral extension of up to 3 miles, which, if confirmed, could increase gross recoverable volumes by 20% beyond current estimates.
3. Development Timing and First Oil Guidance
Murphy remains on track to initiate development drilling at the Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel) project in offshore Vietnam in Q2 2026, aiming for first oil in Q4 2026. The Moray Partners FPSO is contracted for a 20-year lease at an estimated day rate of $200,000. At plateau, Lac Da Vang is expected to produce 25,000 BOPD gross, of which Murphy’s 30% working interest equates to approximately 7,500 BOPD net, contributing meaningfully to the company’s offshore production mix.
4. Vietnam’s Strategic Role in MUR Portfolio
With offshore production in the Gulf of America and onshore U.S. operations generating roughly 165,000 BOEPD net, Vietnam assets are poised to become a material growth driver. At peak rates, MUR forecasts Vietnam net production could account for up to 15% of total output by 2028, supporting corporate free cash flow in a $60–70 WTI price environment. Management has allocated $300 million of the 2026 capital budget to Vietnam exploration and appraisal activities, underlining its strategic priority.