NAB sees Australia consumption growth slowing to 1.4% in 2026-27

NAB flagged a “below trend” growth outlook for 2026-27, with unemployment projected to rise gradually.

Household spending may hold up near term as Q2 fuel-price pressure proved less severe than expected.

Consumption growth is forecast at 1.4% year-on-year across 2026-27, constrained by slower real income gains and housing-market headwinds.

Fuel prices fell through Q2, then turned higher in recent weeks, reinforcing inflation risks.

NAB said the Middle East conflict is driving sustained uncertainty, higher inflation and slower growth, shifting from a spike risk to a protracted drag.