National Fuel Gas (NFG) is down about 3% as investors digest the company’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 update and forward assumptions. While results showed year-over-year earnings growth, the company reduced its assumed NYMEX natural-gas price for the remainder of fiscal 2026 to $3.00/MMBtu and modestly lowered its production outlook, prompting a more cautious read-through for the rest of the year.

For the quarter ended March 31, 2026, National Fuel reported GAAP EPS of $2.59 and adjusted EPS of $2.71, up 13% year over year. The company’s updated fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range is $7.45 to $7.75 (midpoint $7.60), and the revised outlook reflects a lower commodity-price assumption alongside operational updates in the upstream business.

The pressure point is the reset in commodity assumptions: National Fuel now assumes NYMEX natural gas will average $3.00/MMBtu for the remaining six months of fiscal 2026, a $0.75 reduction from its previous assumption. The company also updated integrated upstream and gathering production expectations to 425–440 Bcf, citing timing and operational impacts (including weather-related delays), which can influence cash flow expectations and segment earnings sensitivity even when consolidated guidance stays intact.

Investors will watch whether realized pricing and hedging, completion timing, and pipeline/utility execution can offset a lower forward gas-price deck into the back half of fiscal 2026. Focus is also on progress toward late-2026 milestones, including ongoing expansion projects and the planned closing of the Ohio gas utility acquisition in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026, which is not expected to affect fiscal 2026 guidance.