Nebius Group Secures $17.4B Microsoft Contract and $3B Meta Deal
Crossroads Capital's Q4 2025 letter highlights Nebius Group trading below its earnings power despite securing a five-year Microsoft commitment worth $17.4 billion and a separate $3B AI infrastructure deal with Meta. Analysts expect hyperscaler utilization to ramp through 2026, with growth driven by execution discipline, power availability and secured financing.
1. Valuation Thesis
Crossroads Capital’s Q4 2025 investor letter argues that Nebius Group’s shares are undervalued relative to its earnings power, pointing to its robust execution and strategic hyperscaler partnerships as key drivers of future cash flows.
2. Microsoft Partnership Details
In September 2025, Nebius signed a five-year agreement with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion for dedicated capacity at its Vineland, New Jersey data center, with optional expansions that underline its credit-backed financing model and long-term revenue visibility.
3. Meta AI Infrastructure Agreement
During Q4, Nebius added a second hyperscaler deal: a $3 billion, five-year AI infrastructure contract with Meta, structured on capacity constraints to be deployed over roughly three months, reinforcing its position as an AI infrastructure off-take platform.
4. Growth Outlook and Financing
Through 2026, hyperscaler utilization is expected to ramp across Nebius’s platform, with further growth contingent on disciplined execution, power availability at new sites and access to secured financing linked to counterparty credit quality.