Nebius Grows Revenue 550% YoY but Misses Q4 Forecast by 280 Basis Points
Nebius reported 55% sequential and nearly 550% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, missing consensus by about 280 basis points while delivering $15 million in adjusted EBITDA. Capacity is sold out ahead of planned US, European and French data center expansions that aim to double its footprint in 2026.
1. Q4 2025 Financial Performance
Nebius posted revenue growth of 55% sequentially and nearly 550% year-over-year, falling short of consensus by approximately 280 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA reached $15 million, while net losses widened due to elevated capacity expansion and product development spending.
2. AI Cloud and Hyperscaler Contracts
The company’s shift to AI cloud services drove growth, underpinned by new contracts with major hyperscalers including Microsoft and Meta Platforms. These agreements have propelled recurring revenue and strengthened Nebius’ strategic position in the cloud infrastructure market.
3. Expansion Plans and Capital Investment
All existing capacity is sold out as Nebius prepares to more than double its data center footprint, with new facilities slated in the United States, Europe and a flagship site in France. Expansion efforts have driven up capital expenditure and debt levels, though current cash reserves are sufficient to fund near-term build-outs.
4. Analyst Sentiment and Stock Risks
Analysts have raised price targets and issued optimistic ratings, projecting over 60% upside based on growth forecasts. However, 15% short interest and potential execution or financing delays pose near-term headwinds, with resistance expected near current highs around $135.