Nebius Shares Rally 21% on Q4 ARR of $1.25B and Robust 2026 Guidance
Q4 revenue reached $227.7M (+547% YoY, 55% QoQ) with ARR at $1.25B (+127% QoQ), and management reiterated 2026 guidance of $3B–$3.4B revenue and 800MW–1GW connected power targets, driving a 21% share rally. A comparison highlights Nebius’ unprofitable, high-risk model versus UiPath’s profitable 16% YoY growth and cheaper valuation, leading analysts to favor UiPath.
1. Q4 Results and Share Movement
Nebius reported fourth-quarter revenue of $227.7 million, up 547% year-over-year and 55% sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA margin rising to 24% from 19% despite a negative $0.69 EPS. Strong ARR and power metrics helped shares surge over 21% in the past week, overcoming the revenue miss against a $246 million estimate.
2. Forward Guidance and Capacity Targets
Annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion, a 127% quarter-over-quarter increase, and the company reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion. Management also maintained year-end connected power targets of 800 MW–1 GW and raised contracted power guidance to over 3 GW, reflecting robust demand and pricing power.
3. Comparative Analysis with UiPath
Analysts contrasted Nebius’ high-growth but unprofitable infrastructure model with UiPath’s profitable 16% year-over-year growth and lower valuation. Due to execution risks and thinner margins at Nebius, recommendations have tilted toward UiPath as a lower-risk, more stable long-term investment.