Gilead Sciences shares surged over 21% in the four weeks following January 20 after New England Journal of Medicine data showed that the combination of Trodelvy and Merck’s Keytruda reduced progression risk by 35% in first-line PD-L1 positive metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. The study enrolled 600 patients across 15 countries, demonstrating a median progression-free survival improvement from 5.4 months to 7.3 months. This landmark result positions the regimen as a new standard of care and has elicited buy recommendations from seven of 10 analysts covering the stock.

While the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index declined 3.5% over the past month, Gilead outperformed by approximately 250 basis points, driven by strong institutional buying. Trading volume averaged 12 million shares daily, 40% above the three-month average, suggesting conviction among hedge funds that recently added 1.2 million net shares to their aggregate positions. Short interest fell by 15% over the same period, to 4% of the float, indicating reduced bearish sentiment.

Analysts project Gilead will report fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.60, down from $1.85 a year earlier, on expected revenue of $7.8 billion versus $9.0 billion in Q4 of the prior year. The decline reflects patent expirations for key HIV therapies and higher R&D spending associated with oncology pipeline expansion. Consensus forecasts call for free cash flow of $5.1 billion and an operating margin contraction of 250 basis points sequentially, as commercial launch costs for the Trodelvy-Keytruda program ramp up.