Netflix Q4 Forecast: $11.97B Revenue, $0.55 EPS as Warner Bros Deal Risks Loom

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Netflix is expected to report Q4 2025 revenue of about $11.97 billion and EPS of roughly $0.55 on Jan. 20, supported by stronger international subscriber growth and early-stage advertising revenue. Uncertainty around pricing, financing structure and regulatory approval for its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition remains the primary volatility driver.

1. Warren Raises Ethics Concerns Over Trump’s Netflix Investment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren has publicly challenged President Donald Trump’s decision to invest in Netflix while commenting on its proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery. According to recent financial disclosures, Trump held between $50,000 and $100,000 in Netflix shares during the period he weighed in on the antitrust review of the streaming deal. Warren argued that this dual role creates a conflict of interest and urged regulators to bar any public official from holding stakes in companies involved in megamergers under review. The senator’s letter to the Department of Justice cited examples of market-moving comments by Trump that occurred shortly after his Netflix investment became public, intensifying scrutiny on both the merger and executive ethics rules.

2. Q4 Earnings Preview: Revenue, Ads and Subscriber Momentum

Netflix is set to report fourth-quarter results on January 20, with consensus forecasts projecting revenue of approximately $12.0 billion, up 10% year-over-year, and earnings per share near $0.55. Investors will closely watch ad-supported subscription growth, which reached an estimated 20 million global subscribers by the end of last quarter and contributed roughly $1.2 billion in advertising revenue during the prior quarter. U.S. net subscriber additions are expected to slow to around 300,000, while international markets could deliver 2.5 million new customers, reflecting continued strength in Europe and Latin America. Management’s commentary on churn, particularly in North America where price increases took effect in November, will be a key driver of share movement.

3. Deal Dynamics: Warner Bros Acquisition and Regulatory Outlook

Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery remains the top strategic storyline ahead of earnings. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that Netflix is prepared to revise its original stock-and-cash offer to an all-cash bid, valuing the combined entity at roughly $120 billion. Negotiations are reportedly focused on bridging a price gap of about $10 billion between competing suitors. Federal regulators are conducting an in-depth review under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, with a decision expected by late February. Investors will scrutinize any management updates on deal financing, potential divestiture requirements and timeline projections, as regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on Netflix’s valuation.

Sources

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