New Gold Posts 34% Q4 Gold Output Rise and 285.7% EPS Gain
New Gold’s Q4 2025 EPS estimate of $0.27 reflects a 285.7% increase from $0.07 a year earlier, despite a 3.6% downward revision over the past 60 days. Gold production rose 34% to 107,778 ounces with 104,886 ounces sold (up 36%), underpinning expected revenue growth.
1. Earnings Estimate and Surprise History
The consensus EPS estimate for Q4 2025 has eased 3.6% over 60 days to $0.27, yet represents a 285.7% year-over-year increase from $0.07. New Gold has exceeded consensus in each of the last four quarters, averaging a 41.4% surprise, though its current Earnings ESP stands at 0.00%.
2. Q4 Production Performance
Total gold output reached 107,778 ounces, a 34% increase driven by a 55% gain at Rainy River (94,423 oz) offsetting a 32% drop at New Afton (13,355 oz). Copper production was 11.0 million pounds, down 24%, with copper sales also falling 24% to 10.3 million pounds.
3. Revenue and Cost Dynamics
Gold sales of 104,886 ounces (up 36%) combined with stronger average gold prices are expected to lift Q4 revenues, partially mitigating lower copper volumes. Rising operating expenses from higher gold production may weigh on margins despite top-line gains.
4. Stock Performance
New Gold’s stock has climbed 280.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s 143.8% rise, as investors reward robust production growth and consistent earnings outperformance.