Newmont shares have climbed 26% over the past three months as spot gold recently reached record highs above $2,400 per ounce and several key development projects advanced on schedule. The company attributed much of the rally to the successful drilling results at the Galore Creek copper–gold project in British Columbia and the ramp-up of the Coffee gold mine in Canada, which is now operating at design capacity. However, Newmont’s total gold output fell by 3% year-over-year in the latest quarter, weighed down by lower grades at its Yanacocha and Merian mines. This production shortfall has prompted analysts to caution that sustaining the recent share price gains may prove challenging without a rebound in near-term output.

In the third quarter, Newmont’s capital expenditures declined by 17% compared to the same period last year, driving free cash flow to a record $1.6 billion. Management has signaled that further cuts to 2025 capex—targeting a reduction of roughly 10%—could extend the free cash flow momentum into the next fiscal year. The company plans to prioritize spending on high-return brownfield expansions, including the oxide leach processing plant at Tanami and the sulphide expansion at Peñasquito, while deferring less mature greenfield projects. Investors will be watching the fourth-quarter cash flow report closely to see if the capex discipline translates into sustained shareholder returns.