Newmont Hits Record $1.6B Cash Flow, Shares Jump 4.9%
Newmont generated a record $1.6B free cash flow and returned $5.7B via dividends and buybacks while gold futures rallied 6%, boosting its stock 4.9%. Analysts expect Q1 EPS of $1.91 (vs $1.40 YoY) on $6.01B revenue and maintain a Buy consensus.
1. Record Free Cash Flow Milestone
Newmont reported a record free cash flow of $1.6 billion for the most recent fiscal year, representing a year-over-year increase of roughly 25%. The surge was driven by sustained gold production of 6.1 million ounces and average all-in sustaining costs declining to $1,050 per ounce. This combination of higher volumes and lower unit costs bolstered operational cash generation and provided a stronger buffer against commodity price fluctuations.
2. Capital Return Engine Strengthens Investor Returns
Since the beginning of the year, Newmont has returned $5.7 billion to shareholders through a mix of dividends and share buybacks. The company increased its quarterly dividend by 15%, marking the fifth consecutive annual increase, and authorized an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase program. These actions have improved the dividend yield to 3.2% on a trailing-twelve-months basis and reduced share count by 2.3%, enhancing per-share metrics for remaining investors.
3. Growth Outlook and Analyst Expectations
Looking ahead, analysts anticipate Newmont will generate earnings per share of $1.91 in the upcoming quarter, up from $1.40 a year earlier, and deliver revenue of $6.01 billion, a 6.4% increase year-over-year. Consensus forecasts include continued margin expansion driven by the ramp-up of the Pueblo Viejo exploration project and the recent Newcrest acquisition, which adds approximately 700,000 ounces of annual production capacity. With a consensus Buy rating and an average price target implying mid‐teens upside, the consensus view underscores confidence in Newmont’s capacity to sustain free cash flow growth above $1.5 billion annually over the next three years.