Newmont Rallies 26%, Posts Record $1.6B FCF on Q3 Capex Cut
Newmont's stock has rallied 26% over three months due to record gold prices and advancing projects, despite declining production. Additionally, Q3 capex fell 17%, driving free cash flow to a record $1.6B as management eyes further 2025 capex cuts ahead of Feb. 19 earnings release.
1. Stock Performance and Production Trends
Newmont’s shares have advanced by 26 percent over the past three months as the spot price of gold reached new record highs above $2,100 per ounce. This rally has been driven by strong investor demand for gold as an inflation hedge, but it coincides with a year-over-year decline in gold production of approximately 5 percent. The production shortfall was attributed to scheduled mill maintenance at key assets in Latin America and the temporary suspension of lower-grade satellite pits in Africa. Investors should weigh the near-term impact of these operational headwinds against the company’s robust exposure to high-grade underground mines in Australia and North America.
2. Capital Expenditure Cuts Boost Free Cash Flow
In the third quarter, Newmont reduced its capital spending by 17 percent compared with the prior-year period, bringing total capex to $900 million. This disciplined approach enabled free cash flow to more than double, reaching a record $1.6 billion. Management has signaled that capital budgets for 2025 will remain flat to slightly lower, concentrating investment on high-return brownfield projects at Carlin and Peñasquito. Analysts estimate that sustaining capex at these reduced levels could drive free cash flow above $6.5 billion next year, enhancing financial flexibility for debt reduction and potential shareholder returns.
3. Upcoming Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call
Newmont will report its full year and fourth quarter 2025 results on Thursday, February 19, 2026, after U.S. market close. The company will host a conference call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time (9:30 a.m. Australian Eastern Daylight Time on February 20) to discuss financial results and operational performance. Webcast materials and a replay will be made available on the Investor Relations section of Newmont’s website. Key items for investors to watch include year-end production guidance, unit cost trends, and updated capital allocation priorities.